Category Archives: $SPWR

2CentView performance in 2016

The 2CentView portfolio was up 12% in 2016, which outperformed the S&P500 by 3% but below the FTSE100 which returned 14%.

The objective of the 2CentView system is to outperform the index in rising markets and be at least in line when the major index is flat or falls up to 20%, and outperform if the market corrects more than 20%. The portfolio is benchmarked vs. the SP500 (50%, up 9.5% ) and FTSE100(50%, up 14%), so the outperformed by 0,75% in 2016.

Overall return since 2013, 86% (21.5% annually).

2016 was a volatile and difficult investing year, starting with a sell off in February, triggered by low oil prices and a distressed energy sector. This was followed by Brexit and the election of Donald Trump – both results proving the polls are meaninigless! Many pundits advocating ‘sell all’ following both of these events, but the key was NOT too panic, and look at these events as potential buying opportunities – quality companies will always do well no matter who is in power!

Where it did badly:
2 Core positions were savaged – $FIT (FitBit), $SPWR (SunPower) – both these core positions were down 30% following results, so they traded way through long term stops – 2Centview eventually did exit – the overall pain was not great as 2CentView always sells higher up to reduce the overall cost basis and protect you from the ‘wide arcs’, as the legendary investor Bill Miller says

“Stocks, markets, and money managers’ performance are subject to enantiodromia, the tendency of things to swing to their opposites. Those swings can have wide arcs, and unsustainable trends can sometimes persist beyond the ability of one to endure. That is why most investors are out of stocks at the bottom–they are tired of losing money–and fully invested at the top–they believe their good performance will persist despite their stocks or the market’s being overpriced.”

Trades in $SPD (Sports Direct), $EZJ(EasyJet) [ post Brexit trades],$SKX (Skechers), $VRX (Valeant) were all stopped out.

Where it did well:

Core positions which did well: $MS up 60%, $Z (Zillow group), $ACA (Acacia Mining – gold trade) up 109% were the best performers with other core positions in Apple, FaceBook, Celgene, DLG up between 5 and 15%.

Trades that did well : $LNKD (linked in) – bought by $MSFT, $BOO – boohoo.com (bought after sell off following Trump victory). $DVN – Devon energy  doubled.

Also taken a position in AK Steel and IAG following Trump Election (up 30% and 5% respectively).

The portfolio benefited a bit from the rally in the US$, but the currency exposure is broadly hedged using the $PUS contract.

Main lesson learnt from 2016 – DO NOT PANIC – exiting the market was the worst possible thing you could have done in 2016 – but STICK to your stops if the market or an individual position continues on a downward spiral (both $SPWR and $FIT $9 exit stops were hit).

2CentView is that 2017 could be a great opportunity to make 15-20% if Trump delivers on his election promise, tax cuts and infra-structure spending could really boost company earnings. More on the next tweet for themes for 2017.

Happy 2017  from the 2CentView team.

Market sell off Savage – quality stocks at lower prices…UPDATE…

Revisiting some the quality stocks tweeted out at the end of August, following a savage sell off.The market is punishing stocks whose guidance is weak – $SAVE, $GPRO and NXPI…but have rewarded big cap tech stocks like $GOOG, $MSFT.
Can FaceBook join the big tech party or will it sell off following its big run this month?

Here is an update on these great companies mentioned on August 23rd:

Biotech:
$GILD (Gilead) FV = 115 vs 109 – hold out for 115.

Financials:
$MS (Morgan Stanley) FV= 39 vs 34 1.75% 14% Cheap
Reported a terrible quarter, but hold  –  stock is back to 33.4 wait another quarter!

$JPM (JP Morgan) FV=72 vs 64 2.77% 12% Cheap
Prospect for lower rates for longer has not hurt the stock – HOLD.

$HSBC (HSBC) FV=625 vs 533 5.9% 18% Cheap
Weak earnings in Barclays and a potential cash call in Standard Chartered, has not hurt the stock that much at 510. Keep a stop of 470.

Social Media/Internet Retail
$FB FaceBook – look to buy around $80 (30% 5Y Growth)
Results next week – if you got in the low 80’s take profit. 2Centview sold some of the core at 104.

$AAPL (Apple) FV = 120 vs 105
Take profit some profit here above 120.

$TWTR (Twitter) FV=28 vs 26
Terrible quarter – but stock holding up – FV Much lower as company lowers growth expectations. Exit for flat or hold if you believe in Dorsey.

$YHOO (Yahoo FV = 36 vs 33 (vs 68.2 in BABA stock)
Take profit above 36.

$BABA FV= 88 vs 68
Take some profit here at 84.

Chips
$SWKS (Skyworks) FV=92 vs 79 14% Cheap
Stock lower following NXPI results – but FV Unchanged. HOLD.

3D Printing
$HPQ (hewlett packard) FV= 36 vs 27.5 2.56% Yield – Separation could add $5 – look at EBAY/Paypal!
HOLD. FV Unchanged.

$SSYS (stratasys) FV = 25 (if you include $6 of cash) vs 28
FV lower. Exit here at $26 unless you believe 3D printing is potential growth story.

Solar
$SPWR FV=26 vs 21.7
Take some profit here at $26. Keep a core if you believe in Solar Power long term.

Oil
$BP FV=470 vs 357 yield 6.8%
FV= 400 now – lower as oil prices expect to stay lower for longer. Hold for the YIELD or take profit if you got in at 357.
$PFC (PetroFac) FV = 930 vs 789 yield = 5%
Stock did get to 940 – where 2CentView took some profit – holding a core.

Insurance
$AV. (Aviva) FV=580 vs 482 yield = 4.4%
FV Unchanged – hold for the yield.
$AIG FV = 65 vs 60 1.88% Yield
Take profit at $65 (now 63.53)

Airlines:
$EZJ (easyJet) FV= 1950 vs 1624 3.4% Yield
HOLD.
$SAVE FV = $56 vs 55
Terrible run sees the stock trade down to $35. FV $10 LOWER. 2CentView has exited the core position.
$AAL FV=$55 vs 40
HOLD. Nice rally to $46.

Market sell off Savage – but now is to time to look for quality stocks at lower prices…

They say that all bull markets have the occasional 10% correction and last week’s Friday’s was brutal – is this a correction in a bull market or the start of a bear market?

One thing for sure, China growth is slowing – probably to around 5% – or even lower and this is what is driving stocks lower – first the commodity crash – and then companies with growth to China – which is almost every company – hence broad sell off.

The fall out of this significant market event is there could be some more selling over the coming weeks with a possibility of the SP500 hitting 1900.

2CentView is that it is not an overall bear market – the US and UK Economy are buoyant – and with interest rates and oil prices set to remain low for some time yet, this should spur growth as consumers spend. So the broader market may correct a 3-5% more then rally as the lower growth in china is fully priced in.

Mark your stocks from 1 to 3 – 1 being those you really want to keep forever, and 3 those you can sell to raise cash and buy companies you really want which were too expensive before – 2CentView has sold FitBit and Man Group.
2CentView strategy is always to take some profits when stocks hit your target – reducing the overall cost basis making to hard to lose money in volatile markets – and it is times like now when you are glad you did!

Here are some great companies to keep an eye on

Biotech:
$GILD (Gilead) FV = 118 vs 105 1.6% Yield 11% Cheap

Financials:
$MS (Morgan Stanley) FV= 39 vs 34 1.75% 14% Cheap
$JPM (JP Morgan) FV=72 vs 64 2.77% 12% Cheap
$HSBC (HSBC) FV=625 vs 533 5.9% 18% Cheap

Social Media/Internet Retail
$FB FaceBook – look to buy around $80 (30% 5Y Growth)
$AAPL (Apple) FV = 120 vs 105
$TWTR (Twitter) FV=40 vs 26
$YHOO (Yahoo FV = 36 vs 33 (vs 68.2 in BABA stock)
$BABA FV= 88 vs 68

Chips
$SWKS (Skyworks) FV=92 vs 79 14% Cheap

3D Printing
$HPQ (hewlett packard) FV= 36 vs 27.5 2.56% Yield – Separation could add $5 – look at EBAY/Paypal!
$SSYS (stratasys) FV = 33 (if you include $6 of cash) vs 28

Solar
$SPWR FV=26 vs 21.7

Oil
$BP FV=470 vs 357 yield 6.8%
$PFC (PetroFac) FV = 930 vs 789 yield = 5%

Insurance
$AV. (Aviva) FV=580 vs 482 yield = 4.4%
$AIG FV = 65 vs 60 1.88% Yield

Airlines:
$EZJ (easyJet) FV= 1950 vs 1624 3.4% Yield
$SAVE FV = $66 vs 55
$AAL FV=$55 vs 40

$SPWR – dead money following yield Co announcment? Hold or Switch…

Solar panel maker SunPower seems to stuck around the 2CentView FV of $33 (tweeted on Feb 24). Investors are waiting for more news on the YieldCo and it’s partnership with $FSLR.

For patient and yield investors, it makes sense to wait – the SpinOff may realise more upside and the resulting YieldCo may be worth holding if you want an good income.

For Impatient investors, if you ar considering selling out of $SPWR, $CSIQ (Canadian Solar) would be a good – but riskier – bet – it has had a good run recently up from $35 to $39 – but still looks cheap – 2CentView FV = $60 on $CSIQ.

2CentView has a core position in $SPWR.

$CSIQ(Canadian Solar) – still cheap even after 50% Move from Mid December Low…

Last tweeted this name in Mid December 2013 along with $SPWR as being cheap. 2CentView opted to go for $SPWR rather than $CSIQ.

With $SPWR (SunPower) moving to a yield co, the upside for the stock seems to have disappeared.If you would rather not wait for the yield Co spin off, and want to take some risk, it maybe worth a switch to Canadian Solar. Bear in mind although it is canadian, all the manufacturing is done in China…

$CSIQ is a volatile name name, but FV=$60, there is room to make money with a smaller position with wide stops:

Suggested trade: Buy here at $35, Target $55 Stop $24.

2CentView does not plan to switch from $SPWR to $CSIQ at this time.

$SPWR/$FSLR to form yield co – Sunpower take profit target hit …should you take it?

Tweeted 3 solar names back in Mid December 2013 as being cheap and worth taking a posiiton if you believe the Solar Industry will grow over the next 5 years.

It is crazy that Solar stocks and Oil prices are so highly correlated – Solar produces electricity???

Icahn says on his twitter he makes make money from the markets ‘natural stupidity’ – like when $YHOO was trading at $33 when it was worth $50 – is this another example of natural stupidity where an Industry which has very little to do with oil trades with oil? are Electricity prices going to become cheaper because of lower oil prices?

All 3 stocks have done well since mid december and yesterday’s announced that $SPWR and $FSLR are to create a YieldCo.
A yieldCo is like a utility stock – it should have a reliable cashflow stream the earnings of which are distributed to shareholders – the Apple Solar Farm announced recently could go into in the YieldCo. The YieldCo would be spun off as a separate company some time this year.

$SPWR FV=30 and $FSLR =48 Before this announcement – not sure exactly what the yieldCo SpinOff would be worth – but assume 10% so FV=$33 and $53 respectively.

If you got in at $24 on $SPWR trade, then consider taking some profit around here – there is still risk the yieldCo Formation may fall apart. Keep a core position.

2CentView has a trading and core position in $SPWR opened at $24 mid December 2014, and looking to take some profit around here. Will keep a core position.

2 solar stocks which have halved since September…should you buy?

The rapid fall in oil has seen an amazing collapse in Solar stocks – 2 particularly – $SPWR (SunPower) and $CSIQ (Canadian Solar).

Both these stocks were trading around $40 in September – they are now $23!
2CentView is that the solar industry will not slow down in growth due to lower oil prices – there is still a need to reduce electricity bills and for cleaner energy to stop global warming killing wild life and polar bears in the Artic.
Was stopped out in $FSLR earlier in the year – but the current levels are very attractive if you believe the Solar industry – which is also making technological progress in making fuel cells produce more energy from the sun with the same or lower costs – will continue to move forward regardless of what happens to oil prices.

FV’s below:
$SPWR = 30
$CSIQ = 45
$FSLR = 48

2CentView pick is $SPWR as they sell to retail as well as Industry, and judging by the growth of Solar City there is a growing market.
The Stocks are STILL VERY Risky though with oil prices falling – so manage risk and set 25% downside stops – look to take profit at 50% up.

SOLAR POWER! $FSLR , $SPWR, $SCTY

All the new houses i see being built are using Solar Panels. 2Centview is that there is a chance this industry could make a come back over the next few years.

if you look at the chart for $FSLR – stock reached a peak of $300 in 2008. At $60 it is only on 8% 5Y implied growth rate, so much cheaper than $SPWR which is on a 20% 5Y Growth rate. $SCTY – solar city is not forecast to make positive EPS for another few years so cannot tell what this is worth – but keep any eye on it as it as another Elon Musk company!

Buy $FSLR at $60 if you want exposure to this Industry. TP $90. Cut $45.