Around 47 million people worldwide suffer from dementia, with Alzheimers the most common form (around 60%).
Around 10 million people suffer from Parkinsons world wide according to the Parkinson’s disease foundation.
Both these conditions have no cure, progress gradually and take away the very essence of life gradually – it is also very painful for the loved ones of those afflicted as it a slow progressive illness.
There are several hypotheses as to the causes of Alzehimers – the amyloid hypothesis puts the cause down to excess amyloid buildup in the brain – see link below.
Biogen Idec ($BIIB) have developed a drug (aducanumab) reduces the amyloid levels which have built up in the brain – it is only phase 1b – but the results are good enough to accelerate development.
$PRTA (Prothena Corp) specialises in the development of antiboidies for diseases associated for protein buildups – the build up of a protein called alpha sinuclien in the body’s central nervous system is the cause of Parkinson;s disease.
The company announced this week positive data in a phase 1 of a drug which halts the PROGRESSION of the disease – the only drugs available today help with the symptoms but not the progression. If successful, the drug would have to be taken daily.
The above are only at phase 1 – but for 2 illnesses where there was no hope – now there is some hope! This is why Biotechs are surging.
How should you invest the potential of these drugs, which if they come to market will be blockbusters?
$BIIB, FV=$300 – but this does not include the potential for this blockbuster drug.
At around $480 $BIIB is only an implied 5Y growth of 24% – so not an expensive stock – but does contain some expectation for aducanumab.
$PRTA – could be worth $100 if the Parkinson drug comes to market – so the market is assuming a 30% chance it will. Trade Buy here at $39, target $55, stop $28.
THESE ARE RISKY STOCKS, so manage your positions and be prepared a loss. But let’s hope for the sake of sufferers of these horrible illnessess, they are successful.
2CentView has positions in $ISIS, $CELG and $GILD and considering buying $PRTA.