Category Archives: $MU

$MU (Micron) approaching all time high – should you take profit?

$MU after being whacked down to 28 in October as recovered 23% to test the all time high of around $35.

FV on $MU = $40 – so if it can break $35 it could start testing the FV level.

Implied 5Y growth at 34.5 in $MU is only around 4% – so market does not place a high growth multiple on this stock – mainly due to the commodity nature of memory chips and the ability of competitors increasing supply so reducing the scope of maintaining or increasing margins. However, the supply chain is much better controlled now following industry consolidation.

Hold if like $MU and think the stock can break through the $35 level or take some profit to reduce your cost basis if you got in around $30, looking to add to the position on a pull back.

2CentView has sold it’s position in $MU at 34.25 and using the profit to invest in $SWKS (Skyworks), which has more growth potential – but slightly more risky. However, still like $MU but can’t have both!

$MU (Micron) – back to 31! what a week…

Before last week i never heard of  MicroChip Рbut last week this relatively small semi conductor managed to bring the whole sector down, including Intel Рwhose results were good.

Now they are coming back very quickly – one can only conclude market was in a state of panic last week as hedge funds got killed on shire and hit with margin calls and ebola looked like it was something out of the movie outbreak (one of my favourite movies with Dustin Hoffman)!

Stick with $MU for now, FV=$40, take profit target = 37 or 34.5 if you think this resistance point cannot be broken for a while and you got it when it was trading in the 28-29 area.
The stock was recently upgraded.

2CentView has a trading position in $MU.

Chip Sector gets whacked in terrible week for market – all eyes on INTC results

$MU, $INTC, $AMD and even $QCOM all get whacked on Friday following a warning on chinese order slow down from MicroChip.

$MU – Micron completely reversed a 10% gain to become a 10% loss in just 2 days – shows how the brutal the stock market can be!

Intel results on Tuesday will be key – they announced a great quarter last time has it really all spun on its ahead 3 months later? We will find out Friday.
A bad number could be the exist Visa for the $MU positions…
Although in the same sector, MicroChip and Micron serve different sectors.

$MU FV = 40
$INTC Fv=28 dividend yield = 2.8%

but after Tuesday that could change if $INTC numbers are bad.

2CentView has a trading position in $MU.

$MU(Micron) whacked (a bit) as Samsung builds new DRAM factory…

Biggest risk in investing in MICRON is that competitors will ramp up supply as demand goes higher, putting pressure on margins.

In the 90’s there were 30 companies in the business – now there there only 3 or 4 – so Samsung building a factory – which is not going to be ready until 2017 is a positive sign and not a reason to sell MU just yet – MU should be able to maintain margins for another 2 years and the additional capacity of one factory should not impact the stock too much over the long term.

Hold $MU for now – take profit target $39 but breaking the 34.5 chart resistance is proving to be difficult.

$MU (Micron) up 7% post results…FV Higher

$MU reported a good quarter – initially down to 30.5 in the aftermarket on concerns on margins – the margins were actually flat around 33% if you back out the one off adjustment.

Listening to a conference call talking about DRAMS and NANDS is not the most exciting thing to do on a Thursday evening – in fact it put me to sleep!

But good to wake up the next day to see the stock up and the downside risk was not as high as the upside potential ….

Stick with $MU – FV = 42 – Higher now as Analysts have already upped their estimates for 2015.

Take profit target = 39 if you got in below 31.

 

$MU (Micron Tech) reports Thursday..

If you are in the $MU trade around 30-31 area, hold the position over the results due Thursday as the stock is trading at a good discount to FV – so good asymmetric risk profile on long side..
that is:
A good number and strong guidance could see the stock move back to the 34-35 area where this resistance.
A bad number could see the stock trade back down to $30.

2CentvView has a trading position in $MU.

FV=37 (6% implied growth over 5 years)

At 31.5 implied growth only 3% over 5 years.

$MU(Micron Tech) Back to $30….FV unchanged..

FV unchanged at $37.

Stock failed to reach 36 target rallying 10% to before pulling back again!

HPQ did the same thing and took a while to break 34 before hitting the FV of 38.

MU is trading 9x 2014 multiple, with very low implied growth over 5 years implied in the price at $30.

Trade has not changed from the one tweeted on Aug 11

If you like Micron:

Buy Here at $30, Take profit target = $36, Stop $26.5

2CentView has the trade on.

$MU (Micron Tech) Pull back to $30 is an opportunity – FV…

FV=37 on Micron tech.

the DRAM business has become an oligopoly and where before, increasing demand meant increased capacity as there were too many manufacturers – now the pricing power is more under control as supply is better controlled allowing prices to be kept higher.

MU is trading 9x 2014 multiple, with very low implied growth over 5 years implied in the price at $30.
if you missed $CSCO and $HPQ, buy Micron Tech!

Trade:
Buy Here at $30, Take profit target = $36, Stop $26.5