Category Archives: $GPRO

$FIT, $GPRO – savaged after results…

Shares in FitBit crashed out over 30% – 2CentView has lowered its overall cost basis by selling shares much higher up – so it is more of a disappointment rather than financial pain!

Disappointing from the sense that they are struggling to create businesses which are more than just commoditised hardware products

Healthcare companies have recognised that fitness wearables reduces their overall health care costs – Aetna just signed a deal with Apple – FitBit has the potential to get in this market, but their products and their software are not differentiated enough to really fend off competition from Garmin and Samsung.

FV now $10 post results.

GoPro which reached a whopping $90 last year on hype over a potential media channels, traded down to $9.30 in the after-market post results, but has recovered. They recently launched a drone but they have production issues and are competing with Chinese companies – Earnings estimates did not change after the launch of the drone.

Fair value = $11 for GoPro, post results.

As Samuel Beckett said, “Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better”

However, the Golden rule – take some profit when the stocks are higher up – this cushions the blow and allows you to keep trying for the next potential Amazon or FaceBook!

2CentView has a core position in $FIT, Cost basis = $8. Considering selling the position but in no rush – waiting for better opportunity.

 

The beaten down and back from the dead stocks…if only…

We look at beaten down stocks who trade at significant lower levels from their all-time high and as they subsequently recover, we think I wish I bought some Twitter at $15, GoPro at $11, FitBit at $12, Micron at $11 – all these good quality companies are now trading much higher than their lows – but still significantly lower than their all-time highs…

2CentView was fortunate enough to buy $FIT at $13, and is up over 30% with stock trading just below $17.

There are some common features in all these stocks

– They are all good quality companies with good management and positive earnings and healthy balance sheets

– They all traded at a base level for than a moth

– The 2CentView Fair value ranges from the base value to up to 75% higher than the base value. For example, my historical data shows for the past 3 months, $FIT (Fitbit) Fair value to be around $25 (including the CASH) with stock trading much lower and setting a base between $12 and $13. Similar pattern can be seen for GoPRO, Twitter and Micron.

So, will be sending out a tweet called the Beaten down and Back from Dead – with up to 4 stock ideas where returns can be significant if you they do come back. The criteria will be as follows:

– Trading at a base level for more than a month [bottomed out]

– Have at least 50% upside from the base

– A reason why it will come back e.g. Gopro launching a Drone + Hero 5

– Be a quality Company with good management and good balance sheet.

You should own one of the top 4 tech companies in the world (Google, FaceBook, Amazon or Google – 2CentView owns all 4), you should also look to own one of the beaten up and back from the dead – 2CentView owns $FIT!

$GPRO FV=25 now…but should you buy here…

$GPRO is a text book example of how a stock gets hyped up by analysts and investors get on a bandwagon as the stock just continues to rise, reaching a peak of nearly $100.

Should you but it now, as it falls to around $17 and bounce back a bit?

2CentView Fair Value is now $25, which includes the cash of $3.75 – and buying the stock depends on your view whether this a one product company which sells to a limited market or whether the $GPRO can sell cameras in drones, create and monetise a media channel etc.
I have a GPRO and am not that impressed – I cant even find a player to play my recordings properly! 2CentView is that it is better to wait for the next earnings call before buying … there are some vague rumours of a bid from Apple, but you should not buy a stock on the hope a takeover.
If you have a position, hold until the next earnings call and holiday season sales, stop $14.

$GPRO (GoPro) first time stock price is below Fair Value….and well below consensus TP

The Ambarella conference call triggered a sell off in GoPro – worth listening to the call on earningscast.com as to why…

If you think the selling was overdone in $GPRO, now is a good time to get involved.

2CentView FV= $40 vs $37.
Consensus target price = $71

At $37 the stock is very inexpensive at only 10% implied growth over 5 years.