Category Archives: $CELG

2CentView performance in 2016

The 2CentView portfolio was up 12% in 2016, which outperformed the S&P500 by 3% but below the FTSE100 which returned 14%.

The objective of the 2CentView system is to outperform the index in rising markets and be at least in line when the major index is flat or falls up to 20%, and outperform if the market corrects more than 20%. The portfolio is benchmarked vs. the SP500 (50%, up 9.5% ) and FTSE100(50%, up 14%), so the outperformed by 0,75% in 2016.

Overall return since 2013, 86% (21.5% annually).

2016 was a volatile and difficult investing year, starting with a sell off in February, triggered by low oil prices and a distressed energy sector. This was followed by Brexit and the election of Donald Trump – both results proving the polls are meaninigless! Many pundits advocating ‘sell all’ following both of these events, but the key was NOT too panic, and look at these events as potential buying opportunities – quality companies will always do well no matter who is in power!

Where it did badly:
2 Core positions were savaged – $FIT (FitBit), $SPWR (SunPower) – both these core positions were down 30% following results, so they traded way through long term stops – 2Centview eventually did exit – the overall pain was not great as 2CentView always sells higher up to reduce the overall cost basis and protect you from the ‘wide arcs’, as the legendary investor Bill Miller says

“Stocks, markets, and money managers’ performance are subject to enantiodromia, the tendency of things to swing to their opposites. Those swings can have wide arcs, and unsustainable trends can sometimes persist beyond the ability of one to endure. That is why most investors are out of stocks at the bottom–they are tired of losing money–and fully invested at the top–they believe their good performance will persist despite their stocks or the market’s being overpriced.”

Trades in $SPD (Sports Direct), $EZJ(EasyJet) [ post Brexit trades],$SKX (Skechers), $VRX (Valeant) were all stopped out.

Where it did well:

Core positions which did well: $MS up 60%, $Z (Zillow group), $ACA (Acacia Mining – gold trade) up 109% were the best performers with other core positions in Apple, FaceBook, Celgene, DLG up between 5 and 15%.

Trades that did well : $LNKD (linked in) – bought by $MSFT, $BOO – boohoo.com (bought after sell off following Trump victory). $DVN – Devon energy  doubled.

Also taken a position in AK Steel and IAG following Trump Election (up 30% and 5% respectively).

The portfolio benefited a bit from the rally in the US$, but the currency exposure is broadly hedged using the $PUS contract.

Main lesson learnt from 2016 – DO NOT PANIC – exiting the market was the worst possible thing you could have done in 2016 – but STICK to your stops if the market or an individual position continues on a downward spiral (both $SPWR and $FIT $9 exit stops were hit).

2CentView is that 2017 could be a great opportunity to make 15-20% if Trump delivers on his election promise, tax cuts and infra-structure spending could really boost company earnings. More on the next tweet for themes for 2017.

Happy 2017  from the 2CentView team.

2CentView Sector Views…

At the beginning of each new year, take a look at your portfolio allocation across different sectors, for which there should be at least 5.

Be Overweight in sectors you think will be do well – up to a maximum of 35% in one sector.

2CentView is overweight in Tech and Financials and underweight in commodity/oil.

This view is unchanged, with core positions in TECH: $FB and $GOOG, $SPWR (Sun Power – solar), $SWKS (Sky works) and $NFLX (Netflix), AND Financials: $MS, $HSBC and $DLG.

Tech will continue to drive costs lower via the cloud and shape the we work and play.

Biotech is also making beakthroughs,  but risky.  2CentView has a core position in $CELG (Celgene) – if  there is a cure for cancer,  there is a good chance CELGENE would be involved.

Financials should do well when rates go higher and economies recover, which the UK and the US are on course.

Top Picks: $MS (Morgan Stanley) 32 vs. FV=$40, Yield 1.7%: Stock was hit hard on last earnings as Fixed Income still shows volatility in earnings. $MS Have addressed this by cutting the department and focus on equity underwriting and wealth management.

$HSBC – 537 vs 620 Yield, 6%. Gulliver is determined to cut down the size of the business and improve return on capital. You are paid a nice 6% dividend while you wait for his turnaround plan to take shape.

Sectors to keep an eye on are Energy and Commodity – but is still perhaps too early. Credit default Swaps are very wide and Earnings too unpredictable and the winter is SO WARM!

Keep plugged into 2CentView to get idea updates in these sectors.

If you want to buy now, 2CentView top pick is $BP , 354 vs 400 FV, Yield 5.5%, solid balance sheet, and can withstand low prices.

Finally always keep a look out for recovery plays – QUALITY companies which have been beaten down but can recover – Rolls Royce (FV=550), G4S (FV=300 vs 225), VRX (FV=185 vs 102).

 

 

2CentView Performance in 2015

The 2CentView portfolio was up 1.5% and flat if you exclude dividends for 2015, which matched the S&P500 but above the FTSE100 which was down 5%.

The portfolio was up nearly 10% mid year, but then the Chinese stock market plunged and was followed an amazing drop in commodity and oil prices, the scale of which no one predicted, sees stocks like Anglo American, Glencore and BHP Billiton drop to record lows.

The objective of the 2CentView system is to outperform the index in rising markets and be at least in line when the major index is flat or falls up to 20%, and outperform if the market corrects more than 20%. The portfolio is benchmarked vs. the SP500 (50%, flat ) and FTSE100(50%, down 5%), so the outperformed by 2,5% in a flat year. Overall return since 2013, 74%.

The exposure to USD/GBP exchange rate is also something to keep an eye on – and 2CentView started using the PUS3 3x Leverage ETFS Short USD, Long GBP to hedge foreign exchange risk, locking in at 1.52.

Where it did badly:
2 Core positions were savaged – SAVE (down 60%), $YHOO (down 50%), $TWTR (down 50%) which cost the portfolio nearly 5% – 2CentView exited these positions, when the 50% threshold was hit. $ACA (Acacia Mining – Gold) was also down 40% due to lower gold prices.

Trades in $AMBA (Amberalla), $GNW (Genworth),$KORS (Michael Kors), $BHP (BHP Billiton) and $AAL (Anglo American) were all stopped out. In the case of $GNW, $BHP and $AAL, these stocks continued to fall and the stop loss system saved the portfolio from losing a lot of money.

Trades in $FIT (FITBIT), $HSBC were hit their targets and were profitable.

Core positions which did well: $FB up 40%, $MRKT, $DLG (Direct Line, up 30%+dividends),$NFLX (NetFlix), $TWOD (Taylor Wimpey, up 50%), $GOOGL up 60%.

Other core positions in $AAPL, $NASDAQ:AAL (American Airlines), $SWKS, $MS, $CELG and Ionis pharma were fairly flat.

Main lesson learnt from 2015 – STICK to your stops – downward moves can be savage – Analysts forecast can severely LAG the market on the downside as well as the upside, so do not fight the market, exit at your stop, re-evaluate and come back in lower down if you still like the stock.

Happy 2016 from the 2CentView team.

$CELG (Celgene) hits record high on Receptos take over…FV update

FV Unchanged at $110, but this is not pricing in the revenues from the Receptos Anti-Inflammatory technology – which judging by the move in the Stock price of Celgene today, was a good acquisition.

Receptos has developed anti inflammatory drugs which can be used for the treatment of Crohns and Ulcerative Colitis – 2 common forms of inflammatory bowel disease which is a painful and debilitating disease.

2CentView is continue to hold a core position in Celgene.
It is gradually diversifying its portfolio from Cancer treatments – but it still is a leader in in oncology research – via it’s own research and stakes in companies like Juno. If a cure for cancer is found this century, there is a good chance Celgene will be involved!

2CentView performance in 2014…

The 2CentView portfolio was up 12% fo the year, which matched the S&P500 but well above the FTSE100 (flat).

The portfolio ended the year 75% US and 25% UK 0% Europe – mainly because the US was the only market showing real jobs growth and a rising stock market – the model also showed many more opportunities in the US than outside the US. The exposure to USD/GBP exchange rate is also something to keep an eye on – sterling strength representing a buying opportunity for US Stocks – but can go the other way!

Where it did badly:
2 Core positions were savaged – Blinkx (down 90%) and $TCG (thomas cook) which cost the portfolio nearly 6% – need to do a better job managing zero cost core positions – where you can take your eye of the ball.

Europe and US House & Autos  continued to underperfrom and took losses in Deutsche Bank, HSBC and $USG and $GM – all go cut on the 25% Stops (they continued to go lower – except $GM which has come back – thanks EBOLA!)

Also took some losses in $FUEL, $GIMO, $ICPT on the rotation out of expensive growth stocks into more low growth stocks – growth positions are the riskiest and hardest to manage as moves can be savage.

Where it did well:
$AAL- American Airlines, $SAVE did very well up nearly 100%
$FB up 37%
$CELG and $ISIS – up nearly 80%
$YHOO – up 40% – easiest trade of the year!
$AAPL – up 50%
$MS – Morgan Stanley up 30%
Rite Aid and Radian also performed well (core positions from 2013)

2014 was in general lot tougher than 2013 as the market experienced volatility throughout the year – Russia/Ukraine, EBOLA, Oil price collapse – all tested the nerves – but also represented buying opportunities.
The 2CentView strategy of taking some profits, setting stops helps build low cost positions and mitigates losses from positions not working – this really helps in managing volatile markets – and helps you sleep at night – we all have day jobs!
Overall the portfolio is up 73% since beginning of 2013 when the model and strategy was first built.
Main lesson learnt from 2014 – be more selective and if a core position drops more than 30% – start to exit – even if it is because of a malicous blog!

So 50% of the portfolio was up average of 51% =25.5% on the winners
30% portfolio down 25% = -7.5% on the losers

6% loss on core positions in $BLNX and $TCG

Net=12%

$CELG (Celgene) – great quarter, blasts through $100 2CentVew FV..

Celgene reported a great quarter seeing the stock rally hard and blast through the $100 FV.
Much of the revenue is down to to Revlimid – a treatment for multiple myeloma a type of cancer affecting the body’s ability to produce white blood cells, but they are building a strong pipe line of new drugs, including Otezla – a treatment for arthritis.

Stick with $CELG – the stock has potential to go higher as asset managers will want to get exposure to this stock. See the stock going to $110 short term (25% implied 5Y growth) – long term who knows – they seed a number of small biotechs any of which could create a miracle drug …

2CentView has a core position in $CELG.

Biotechs – UK Fund Manager Woodford believes “We are on Cusp of Some…

Extraordinary breakthroughs in the UK life sciences sector” and is investing 10% of his portfolio in UK companies like Oxford Nanopore and Circassia Pharma, according to the Times.
The Times also mentions US Biotechs – Celgene, Gilead, Amgen, and Biogen Idec.

There are breakthroughs happening in the US – and every week small biotechs announce innovative new treatments are getting FDA phase one approval.

2CentView has been tweeting about $CELG and $GILD all year – so hopefully you are involved in at least one big biotech – FVs below:

$CELG 100
$GILD 120
$BIIB 300

Which are all up between 30 and 50% this year and still reasonably valued.

As for the smaller Biotechs – there are 100’s! and picking the right one is a lottery…

Best to buy the IBB ISHares if you want exposure to the whole sector, or buy into Neil Woodford’s portfolio.

Warning: The Sector is however very risky – invest for the long term so keep positions in the IBB and small Biotechs small and look to add on weakness – and keep wide stops.

2CentView has a core position in $CELG and $ICPT.

$CELG (Celgene) FV Update…

Celgene FV=96 (192 pre split) as Biotech large cap earnings get upgraded.

With an implied 5Y growth rate of just over 20% the current price of 96 represents fair value.

Take profit in $CELG if you got in the below $70 (post split price).

Keep a core position – the next decade could see a real breakthrough in the treatment of cancer which would send the stock to the moon!

2CentView has a core position in $CELG.

$CELG (Celgene) Converging to Fair Value following news of split..look to..

take some profits in Celgene if you got in at the 140 level in March, for a quick 18% return over 3 months.

The stock remains attractive on a 16.5x 2015 earnings, with EPS consensus growth rate around 20% over 5 years (0.8 PEG), so keep a core position if you like Celgene.

The company’s revenues do depend a lot on anti cancer drug Revlimid – whose patents expire in 6 years, but it is diversifying its product range. The split should attract more retail investors.

FV=170, but long term potential for Celgne = 250.

2CentView has a core and trading position in $CELG.