Category Archives: $BIIB

Why are Biotechs surging? Possible breakthrough treatments in Alzheimers and Parkinsons in 1week..is why,.

Around 47 million people worldwide suffer from dementia, with Alzheimers the most common form (around 60%).

Around 10 million people suffer from Parkinsons world wide according to the Parkinson’s disease foundation.

http://www.pdf.org/en/parkinson_statistics

Both these conditions have no cure,  progress gradually and take away the very essence of life gradually Рit is also very painful for the loved ones of those afflicted as it a slow progressive illness.

There are several hypotheses as to the causes of Alzehimers – the amyloid hypothesis puts the cause down to excess amyloid buildup in the brain – see link below.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alzheimer%27s_disease#Amyloid_hypothesis

Biogen Idec ($BIIB) have developed a drug (aducanumab) reduces the amyloid levels which have built up in the brain – it is only phase 1b – but the results are good enough to accelerate development.

$PRTA (Prothena Corp) specialises in the development of antiboidies for diseases associated for protein buildups – the build up of a protein called alpha sinuclien in the body’s central nervous system is the cause of Parkinson;s disease.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson%27s_disease

The company announced this week positive data in a phase 1 of a drug which halts the PROGRESSION of the disease – the only drugs available today help with the symptoms but not the progression. If successful, the drug would have to be taken daily.

The above are only at phase 1 Рbut for 2 illnesses where there was no hope Рnow there is some hope! This is why Biotechs are surging.

How should you invest the potential of these drugs, which if they come to market will be blockbusters?

$BIIB, FV=$300 – but this does not include the potential for this blockbuster drug.

At around $480 $BIIB is only an implied 5Y growth of 24% – so not an expensive stock – but does contain some expectation for aducanumab.

$PRTA – could be worth $100 if the Parkinson drug comes to market – so the market is assuming a 30% chance it will. Trade Buy here at $39, target $55, stop $28.

THESE ARE RISKY STOCKS, so manage your positions and be prepared a loss. But let’s hope for the sake of sufferers of these horrible illnessess, they are successful.

2CentView has positions in $ISIS, $CELG and $GILD and considering buying $PRTA.

Biotechs – UK Fund Manager Woodford believes “We are on Cusp of Some…

Extraordinary breakthroughs in the UK life sciences sector” and is investing 10% of his portfolio in UK companies like Oxford Nanopore and Circassia Pharma, according to the Times.
The Times also mentions US Biotechs – Celgene, Gilead, Amgen, and Biogen Idec.

There are breakthroughs happening in the US – and every week small biotechs announce innovative new treatments are getting FDA phase one approval.

2CentView has been tweeting about $CELG and $GILD all year – so hopefully you are involved in at least one big biotech – FVs below:

$CELG 100
$GILD 120
$BIIB 300

Which are all up between 30 and 50% this year and still reasonably valued.

As for the smaller Biotechs – there are 100’s! and picking the right one is a lottery…

Best to buy the IBB ISHares if you want exposure to the whole sector, or buy into Neil Woodford’s portfolio.

Warning: The Sector is however very risky – invest for the long term so keep positions in the IBB and small Biotechs small and look to add on weakness – and keep wide stops.

2CentView has a core position in $CELG and $ICPT.