Category Archives: $BBRY

$BBRY( Blackberry) first time in 2 years that …..

3 quarters of the analysts covering the stock have a buy or hold recommendation – according to the FT!

Following results last week, the sock has had a good run and listening to the conference call John Chen seemed optimistic about the future of Blackberry and the potential to start growing the business again next year!

Difficult to place a Fair Value on the stock, as the company is expected to continue to report losses for the next 3 years – however, this seems to contradict what Chen is saying!

The asset value is between $6 and $8 …

if you are involved in Blackberry, when 2CentView tweeted this back in February, take some profits in the $12 area if you’re average cost is $8 – but keep a long term core position – the stock could be at $15-20 area by this time next year if you believe Chen can return the company to growth.

Listen to the conference call below before buying or selling the stock.
http://uk.blackberry.com/company/investors/events.html

$BBRY up another 8% – Ford switches to QNX from $MSFT for Sync ..is it worth buying?

Have to a look at the sum of the parts valuation for $BBRY – like $YHOO.

Below is ROUGH Guide!

Major Assets are:
$2.2bn CASH – but this is expected to burn down to $1bn before $BBRY become profitable..
$4bn revenues from Enterprise revenue – assume 30% Margin – business is worth around $1bn p.a.
BBM – 80mmusers – $FB paid $42 per user for WhatsApp, if we assume $10 per user could be worth between $750 to $1bn max – but who would be willing to pay for BBM?

At 10.60 the market cap is 5.58bn – the market is applying a Multiple of 3.5x to the Enterprise Business – this does seem a bit low – but there is uncertainty whether the Enterprise business will become a viable business.

There are 2 ways to look at $BBRY –
Bull case:
Blackberry is still well entrenched with the US Government – the Z30 is actually a fantastic phone – and they still do well in Emerging Markets. The Enterprise business is on a low multiple and BBM could be worth a lot more and QNX is well entrenched in the major Cars. If you believe in this, stock could double.

Bear:
BBM is worth nothing, Enterprise revenue will die away and the company will not survive the next 3 years.

2CentView is that If you are in the BULL Camp, Buy HALF your intended position here and the other half at 8 if it gets there, averaging in at 9. Take profit Target (TP) = $17, Stop 5.