Last tweeted on Acordia when the stock was close to $30 target price taking profits but leaving a core position.A month on the stock has collapsed following an unfavorable patent decisions on 4 patents relating to one of their key Parkinson’s drugs.
The company will appeal the ruling, but EPS forecasts are now negative best to keep out of the stock for the moment.
Biotechs are risky so keep positions manageable, take profits when you can to reduce cost basis and hope they make breakthroughs in horrible diseases, like Parkinsons.
2CentView has exited the core position in $ACOR for an overall small profit.
Got into the trade suggested in October 2016.
Positive phase 3 data from a trial of CVT-301 – a drug which potentially brings an important new therapy for Parkinson’s has seen this stock surge towards $30.
2CentView has taken profit in the trading position and now holds a core position in $ACOR – in the hope that a cure for this terrible disease is found.
Back on Sep 26th , sent out a blog about trying to identify quality stocks which have been beaten down and have potential to come back…
Acorda Therapeutics stock started the year at $40, beaten down to $20 and has settled between $19-$20 for the past month.
This Biotech company does have a good current revenue stream and potential pipeline of neuroscience related drugs such as Parkinson’s Disease.
2CentView Fair Value = $30, Consensus Analyst Price target = $40.
Results are tomorrow!
So looking at the criteria set out in the blog:
– Trading at a base level for more than a month [bottomed out]
Seems to have bottomed out around $20 for the past month.
– Have at least 50% upside from the base
Yes, 2CentView FV = $30.
– A reason why it will come back e.g. Gopro launching a Drone + Hero 5
Results are tomorrow – a good set of numbers could see a pop in the stock – BIIB results today was good.
– Be a quality Company with good management and good balance sheet.
It has very little debt and a good pipeline with quality management.
Buy here at $20, take profit target = $30, Stop $15. RESULTS TOMORROW.
BIOTECHS are risky – especially with current election coming and Clinton’s rhetoric on price gauging.
Being long $ICPT is a bit like winning the lottery (with much better odds!) – there are so many BioTech stocks!.
If you want to get involved, here some good ones to look at. Prices are not cheap, but the stocks are at premium for a reason – this sector is making medical breakthroughs and the traditional pharma companies will start buying them up or merging.
$GILD – a 2CentView pick at 60 now $75 – FV Now $95. Focus: Hepatitis.
$CELG – FV=140 but this on a 24% implied Growth at 174, so not expensive in growth terms.
$BIIB – implied growth = 28%.
$REGN – the most expensive on a implied growth of 44%.
$ACOR – Acordia Theraptutics – FV=28 – Implied Growth 30% –
$UTHR – United Theraputics – FV=110 – implied Growth 15% – 2CentView top pick!
Companies with no positive EPS but have potential new break through drugs
$ICPT – intercept Pharma – the news their drug – which has the same structure as human bile acid, will go straight from trial to commercial use rocketed the stock!. BAML estimate of $400 is regarded as Conservative
$ISIS – RNA Research – new field of Research using Ribo Nucleic Acids
$CLVS – Clovis – BAML next potential $ICPT – anti cancer agents
Buy 2/3rds of your position in $GILD, $CELG or $UTHR : take profit 50% up, 25% down.
Buy 1/3 in one of $ICPT, $ISIS, $CLVS – Risk Reward: 3 to 1: take profit 70%, loss 35% down