Category Archives: $AAL

$AAL (Anglo American) – as Diamond sales hit records in the US, this stock could be worth…

Buying here.DeBeers accounts for 26% of Anglo American Earnings and the stock is looking very cheap here at 1029. US Diamond sales are at record levels – expect the Chinese to also start buying diamonds!

After Indian Billionaire bought a 10% Stake earlier this year, the stock climbed to 1310.

2CentView FairValue = 1200, Consensus target price = 1330

P/E = 6x and Forecast Yield = 3% as the market is epxecting the company to start paying dividends again – the balance sheet is in good shape with low Net Debt to EBITDA ratio compared to peers such as Glencore.

2CentView has a core position in Anglo American and plays to add a trading position on Monday.

Take Profit Target Price = 1230, stop = 850.
Low P/E – cheap stock more upside than down side risk in this name – similar to $IAG at 420!

Watch your stops on the Miners….EPS Estimates maybe revised lower..

Commodoties go lower breaking support levels – they may continue to go lower if oil prices drop below $40….Watch you stops – there maybe better opportunites to buy lower down
Analysts have not downgraded earnings yet, like they have with the oil companies, but this maybe yet to come if they believe the market is right about the sell off in commodity stocks and commodity prices will go lower.

Fair values below are unchanged, but EPS Estimates have not yet been revised.
BHP BIlliton FV=1850
Anglo American FV=1550
Glencore FV= 340

Vedanta FV=675

2CentView has a trading position in BHP opened at 1400.

Happy 2015 from 2CentView

Thanks for the all the comments in 2014.

As tweeted at the beginning of 2014 (http://www.2centview.com/2014/01/02/happy-2014-from-2centview-2014/) central bank policies are designed to create real jobs – jobs will not be created unless companies must see real growth – this has certainly happened in the US where unemployment has fallen below the target 6% and gdp growth last reported at 5%!
This has sent the US Indices to records as the majority of companies continue to beat earnings expectations.
As growth begins to accelerate, interest rates are expected to rise as growth is normally accompanied by inflation – but this did not happen – instead of the 10Y US government yield rising to 3% as many predicted it yields kept falling…For some time this created a paradox – the bond market was saying inflation was not a problem – in fact deflation was a bigger problem than inflation – hence growth cannot be possible – but the stock market was saying the opposite? Which market was right?
From the US Perspective, it turned out they both were – what we have seen is amazing drop in oil prices and commodity prices staying low. Oil prices have dropped due to oversupply (fracking, more efficient cars/jets, need to for countries like Venezuela and Iran to keep pumping oil, and a lack of any growth outside the US.
So this means we could have a year of growth with zero inflation – even deflation or disinflation – this could be great for stocks as costs are kept low but prices may not necessarily follow as there is strong demand as people spend their additional cash from their savings on fuel and general confidence in the job prospects.

Only once in the past 13 where there is a 5 in the year has the stock market gone down and David Tepper is making parallels with 1998=2014 and 1999=2015 – both of which saw a russian crisis followed by a great year leading to over valuation from fair valuation.

Stay Invested in stocks in 2015 – the market is not cheap anymore – so finding bargains will be difficult – so look for sells offs like EBOLA to get in!

Would recommend keeping at least 50-60% invested in the US in 2015 (2CentView had 75% in the US invested in 2014).

If you are not invested, here are some starter stocks to get your portfolio going:

Financials – should do well in rising interest environment – so hedge against interest cost rising
$Barc FV=280 vs 243 yield 2.8%
$JPM FV=72 vs 62 yield 2.5%
$GS = 215 vs 194 yield 1.25%
Or if you want exposure to Europe $DB (Deutshe Bank) F=35 vs 25 yield 3% – note:Euro could go much weaker

Social, Mobile, Cloud
No Bargains here – the last was Google at 500 – take a small position in TWTR below 40

Commodoties – with prices at all time low could be an entry point – keep to stops if they keep falling
BHP BIlliton FV=1850 px = 1390 yield = 5.9%
Anglo American FV=1550 px = 1200 yield = 4.5%

BioTech
No bargains here except:
$GILD FV=115 vs 96 9.5 2015 P/E 5% 5Y implied growth!

And finally – look to get into oil stocks when oil finally bottoms out…keep an eye of PetroFac and Halliburton

Happy New Year and all the best for 2015 from the 2CentView team!
Lets hope its good and a bit less volatile!

2 large cap miners at a 30% discount to FV with good yields – buy one now if you think …

…Commodity prices have bottomed out and the selling is overdone.

With oil prices dragging down other commodity prices and solar stocks on concerns the low oil price indicates a real slow down economic growth, this could be a good time to buy commodity stocks rather than oil companies themselves, whose earning have been revised down in line with current prices – but the commodity and solar stocks have not.

If you believe, the selling is overdone look to buy one of the large cap miners below, for the yield and upside potential:

BHP BIlliton FV=1850 px = 1375 yield = 5.9%
Anglo American FV=1550 px = 1193 yield = 4.5%

other comparables:
Glencore FV= 340 px = 297
Vedanta FV=675 px = 586

2CentView recommendation is BHP – they are making effciency savings to ensure profit margins are maintained (focussing on the bottom line) and the yield is very attractive at nearly 6%.

Trade: Buy here at 1377-1425 region, look for 20% upside i.e take profit target = 1700, stop 1220.
2CentView plans to initiate a trading position in BHP next week.

$AAL Anglo american 1500 target hit….fv higher now=1600

Nice rally in Anglo American (shares with american in the name seem to be doing well this year)

Commodity stocks not the hated sector this year so much as they were last year as the global economy does pick up even against the woes of emerging markets

Sell half or a third of your position here if you got behind the name athe beginning of the year. Keep a core has more room to run

Sent from my iPad in the arbus a380 bar via on air wifi

Happy 2014 from 2CentView 2014?…..

2013 was a great year for stocks. Central bank policies are designed to create real jobs as their benchmark is unemployment figures – if real jobs are created, then corporations must be doing to well to be convinced to hire – if the corporations are doing well then there is real growth and stocks will go higher. All that said, no-one really knows how the market will do in 2014 and finding bargains like $YHOO, $FB, $TCG will be harder but they will be there and YOU NEED TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
2CentView will keep sending out recommendations – looking for 15% upside on low risk stocks with dividend yields and 25% upside on more riskier stocks – with stops which you should stick to just in case the it does go south! And some will!

Tweet 2CentView if you want to know the FV or a strategy for any other stocks you like. Remember, the next big thing maybe staring in you the face every day – so don’t send out stuff regurgitating what you get from news letters – but if your girlfriend or wife spots a new trend in fashion share it with us!

Here are a few (large cap) recommendations from the outset in different sectors:

$NYSE:$AAL – 40, 37, 19 [FV/PT/STOP] – current px = 25

$HPQ 35/35/23 – if they go into 3D printing especially! – px=27.5

$C 59/59/45 (px = 50) or $BARC 350/330/245 px=271
$PFC (petrofac) 1400/1400/ 1125 px =1220 3% Div yield
$AAL (Anglo american) 1500/1500/1200 3.9% Divi Yield

All the best for 2014, 2CentView team!